Tariff Tug-of-War

By: Elián Zidán

Yes, no, maybe—give it a month. That’s how unpredictable the U.S. stance on tariffs has been, like a schoolyard fight that ends with both sides reluctantly trading lunches.

The responses from Mexico and Canada couldn’t be more different. Canada, in true Game of Thrones style, met the move head-on—Trudeau took a firm stand, while frustrated business owners started pulling American products off their shelves. Mexico, on the other hand, played it cool, opting for patience and strategic restraint worthy of "Kalimán". Ironically, that approach seemed to resonate better with the White House.

Meanwhile, uncertainty is hitting consumers where it hurts. Families already struggling to make ends meet now face an even tougher reality—one where prices will only keep climbing.

This whole tariff war feels unnecessary, especially in a solid economic bloc that, just a few years ago, renegotiated its trade agreement with the full backing of all parties—including the current U.S. president.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But in the Oval Office, the strategy seems to be the opposite—shaking up regional economic stability as a way to exert pressure and score political points.

Economists I’ve spoken to all agree: this is a bad move across the board, but Mexico stands to lose the most.

Maybe that’s why President Claudia Sheinbaum has refused to take Trump’s bait. She seems to understand his game and, with quiet precision, is letting him think he’s winning—while actually outmaneuvering him.

One thing is clear: Trump loves being in control—of trade, foreign policy, and the narrative of who’s giving in to whom. But deep down, even as a businessman, he must know that rattling the region’s economy isn’t exactly a smart play.

Take Mexico, the U.S.’s biggest trading partner. The numbers speak for themselves. In November 2024 alone, Mexico exported $3.06 billion worth of auto parts to the U.S. while importing $1.47 billion in American parts.

And if we focus on the auto industry, it’s obvious this was the handbrake (pun intended) that made Trump think twice.

Just before the so-called "cordial" phone call between Sheinbaum and Trump—both of whom used that word—the only industry spared from tariffs was, conveniently, automobiles. That’s not a coincidence.

Disrupting a sector that’s been running smoothly for over 30 years would’ve been an economic disaster. So was this a calculated strategy or a last-minute retreat? Either way, one thing is certain: in this trade chess game, every move has consequences far beyond political theatrics.

For now, the fate of tariffs is up in the air, like a coin tossed by the White House on a whim. What started as a political pressure tactic has turned into a test of endurance for the entire region.

In this standoff, Canada is holding firm, Mexico is playing smart, and Trump is making moves to ensure he has the final say. But beyond the strategy and the spectacle, it’s everyday people, small businesses, and entire economies that will pay the real price.

This isn’t just a playground spat over lunch. The future of millions is on the line.